", "How We Designed The Look Of Our 2020 Forecast", "America's Hottest Pollster Gives His Final Verdict as US Elections Reach Climax", "FiveThirtyEight Combines Polls, Reporting and Baseball", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=FiveThirtyEight&oldid=1002583921, Articles with dead external links from February 2016, CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown, Articles with dead external links from September 2018, Articles with permanently dead external links, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, sports blog, In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of, June 2018: "The Atlas of Redistricting" was named "News App of the Year" by the Data Journalism Awards sponsored by the, This page was last edited on 25 January 2021, at 03:19. [62] Sanders went on to win 23 states in the primaries. Wizard, indeed". Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. His real name is Galen Rupp his zodiac animal is Tiger people born on May fall under the zodiac sign of Taurus. Silver identified Cohen as "my news assistant". [54], On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year. Critics scoffed. [78], The forecast favored the actual winner of 48 states, the District of Columbia, and four of the five congressional districts awarding electoral votes, only missing Florida, North Carolina, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. [538 36] In the end, Silver's projections were off the mark, particularly compared with those of some other organizations, and Silver wrote a post mortem on his blog. [40], The first column of the renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. Silver received bids from several major media entities before selecting the Times. The first of a series of articles challenged Strategic Vision LLC to reveal key information. Galen Druke Host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast Greater New York City Area 500+ connections [538 6], In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN. Galen Druke is FiveThirtyEight’s podcast producer and reporter. [68][69] FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in final weeks based on both Clinton's small lead in general polls, but also on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania, mixed with Clinton's poor performing in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012. The Fivey Fox mascot pops up next to most charts with call-outs to more further information. FiveThirtyEight projected a much higher probability of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other pollsters,[68] a projection which was criticized by Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight – including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned – our early estimates of Trump's chances weren't based on a statistical model. Politics Podcast: Would Voters Abandon The GOP For A 'Patriot Party'? [12] Using such information allowed Silver to come up with estimates of the vote preferences even in states for which there were few if any polls. [56], FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. [538 24], FiveThirtyEight covered the November 3, 2009, elections in the United States in detail. In those three contests the forecast had favored Biden, but they were carried by Trump. [57], As early as June 2015, FiveThirtyEight argued that Donald Trump "isn't a real candidate. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. International affairs columnist Renard Sexton began the series with an analysis of polling leading up to the election;[538 23] then posts by Silver, Andrew Gelman and Sexton analyzed the reported returns and political implications. FiveThirtyEight has won numerous awards. [8] Writing as Poblano on Daily Kos, he had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. [538 50], While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness[538 51][538 52][44] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process,[538 53] the B.C.S. [538 68] By March 2016, this staff had nearly doubled to 37 listed on the masthead, and 7 listed as contributors. 2/1/2021. In the 2016 primaries, the projections also took into account endorsements. [53] The site produced articles under 5 headings: politics, economics, science and health, (cultural) life, and sports. ", "Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated", "Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud", "An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson", "Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose", "Polling and Voting in Iran's Friday Election", "Independent Voters and Empty Explanations", "UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120", "A Hung Parliament? This is what allowed him to beat all the pollsters in his forecasts in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, for example. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings. [538 17], Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage. But especially in the early months of the election season polling in many states is sparse and episodic. [63], The final prediction by FiveThirtyEight on the morning of election day (November 8, 2016) had Hillary Clinton with a 71% chance to win the 2016 United States presidential election,[67] while other major forecasters had predicted Clinton to win with at least an 85% to 99% probability. Martha Raddatz (; born February 14, 1953) is an American reporter with ABC News. [49][50] Additional tests of the accuracy of the electoral vote predictions were published by other researchers.[51][52]. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate". [73] While FiveThirtyEight expressed that "nonetheless, Clinton is probably going to win, and she could win by a big margin", the forecaster also made a point about the uncertainty of poll trackers in some cases, about a considerable number of undecided voters and about the unpredictable outcome in traditional swing states. As of July, it had a staff of 20 writers, editors, data visualization specialists, and others. 's Ratings Are Substandard and Porous", "In Jobs Data, 'Surprises' Mean Bad News", "A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe", "Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests", "The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)", "Calculating 'House Effects' of Polling Firms", "FiveThirtyEight's Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge", "Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. [37] In legal terms, FiveThirtyEight granted a "license" to the Times to publish the blog. [71] In consequence, Clinton's probabilities to win the Electoral College were not improving. Guy definition, a man or boy; fellow: He's a nice guy. Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid? For each contest, FiveThirtyEight produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models. [538 71], FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly. [77] In November of 2020, Rolling Stone reported that Fivey Fox had reached over 7,000 followers on his dedicated Twitter account. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things".[60]. Articles tagged Galen Druke (1) Nicholas Quah August 22, 2017. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, FiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the Global Editors Network. Question over transparency in pollster ratings. Duration: 01:01:49. Galen Druke Host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast New York City Metropolitan Area. [36] In addition to updating his pollster ratings, he published an updated methodological report. [64] The website also kept track of the accumulation of national party convention delegates. During the presidential primaries and general election of 2008 the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data". As my colleague Galen Druke has reported, the case hinges on math: Is there a way to measure a map’s partisan bias and to create a standard for when a gerrymandered map infringes on voters’ rights?…” [538 48] Cohen also contributed additional columns on occasion. [538 10] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes. Confidence Interval: Will California Voters Recall Gov. After President Obama's inauguration, Sean Quinn reported that he was moving to Washington, D.C., to continue political writing from that locale. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day. Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, a progressive nonprofit media watch group, wrote in May 2016 that FiveThirtyEight "sacrificed its integrity to go after Sanders" and that they have "at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackery – that is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions. Then Lose Everywhere Else", "What To Make Of The Bernie Sanders Surge", "538 Sacrifices Integrity to Go After Sanders on Independents", "Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions, "Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton", Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump a Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else, "Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction", "The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing", "How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote", "Election Update: Don't Ignore the Polls — Clinton Leads, But It's A Close Race", Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump's Direction, "Five things data storytellers can learn from 2020 US election poll trackers", "There's more than meets the eye in 2020 election forecasts", "Jasmine Mithani, visual journalist at FiveThirtyEight, on the Fivey Fox mascot, their interactive swing state map, and more", "People Are Impossibly Horny for Fivey, the FiveThirtyEight Fox", "Ninth Annual Weblog Awards: The 2009 Bloggies", "The Ninth Annual Year in Ideas – Forensic Polling Analysis", "A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster", "Five Thirty Eight – TIME's 25 Best Blogs of 2011", "2017 Keck Futures Initiative Communication Awards - Marian Koshland Science Museum", "On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri", "FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times", "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats", "Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls", "Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189", "Obama Hits the Road to Sell Stimulus, Steps Up Pressure on Key Senators", "Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election", "Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy", "Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? [538 3] During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million page views. Normani song Motivation Sheryl Crow song Motivation by Snoop Dogg from 220 Motivation horse a Thoroughbred racehorse Motivation band a short - lived Motivation is a song by Canadian rock band Sum 41. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. [538 39][32], Silver responded on 538: "Where's the transparency? Her research interests include the American presidency, political parties and political rhetoric. [538 67] The 538 model correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Monthly traffic to the site grew steadily from about 2.8 million unique visitors in April 2014 to 10.7 million unique visitors in January 2016. [538 27], In spring of 2010, FiveThirtyEight turned a focus on the United Kingdom general election scheduled for May 6, with a series of more than forty articles on the subject that culminated in projections of the number of seats that the three major parties were expected to win. These include Bloggie Awards for Best Political Coverage in 2008 and Best Weblog about Politics in 2009 as well as Webbies for Best Political Blog in 2012 and 2013. [538 69] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. She is the network's Chief Global Affairs Correspondent reporting for ABC's Wo… [27] He wrote a series of columns investigating the credibility of polls by Georgia-based firm Strategic Vision, LLC. Norm Coleman); and the appointments of Senatorial replacements in Colorado, New York, and Illinois. The campaign was announced on February 10, 2019. Health Details: Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race.Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, FiveThirtyEight, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio, and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION.
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